The California Water Plan uses multiple future scenarios and alternative response packages as an analytical approach to evaluating future water management conditions. The scenarios are not meant to be forecasts of the future, but represent alternatively plausible conditions for the future. Response packages to these scenarios are comprised of different mixes of Resource Management Strategies.
Scenarios are shaped by factors considered to be beyond the control of water managers. Each scenario has alternative values for some factors such as population growth and land use. Water Plan scenarios are used to explore questions about the future; for example, what will the year 2050 be like if California's population continues to grow at the rate it has over the past several years, and what if the rate increases over the next 10, 20, or more years? How will shifting land use influence future water demands for agriculture or municipalities?
For a complete overview and explanation of the multiple future scenarios and alternative response packages used for California Water Plan Update 2013, see Managing an Uncertain Future in Volume 1.
The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) uses a number of tools to analyze ongoing and future operations. The following table lists the tools that the Water Plan uses.
The following tools are available for use.
|CALVIN||Economic Optimization of Water Allocation||UC Davis|
|CAWU||Evapotranspiration of Applied Water||DWR|
|CU||Crop Consumptive Use||DWR|
|CUP||Crop Consumptive Use||DWR|
|DSM2||Hydrodynamics and Water Quality||DWR|
|IMPLAN||Economics and Impact Analysis for Planning||MIG, Inc.|
|IWFM||Integrated Surface Water and Groundwater Hydrology||DWR|
|IWRMAIN||Urban Water Use||CDM|
|LAWS||Field-level Water Budget, Regional Water Supply Allocation||USBR|
|LCPSIM||Economic Optimization of Water Management Options||DWR|
|Probabilistic Climate Projections for California||California Climate Change||CEC|
|SIMETAW||Weather Generator and Evapotranspiration of Applied Water||DWR|
|SWAP||Farm Production Economics Modeling||UC Davis/DWR|
|UPLAN||Urban Land Use||DWR|
|WEAP||Water Resources Planning||Stockholm Environmental Institute|
DWR partners with the California Water and Environmental Modeling Forum (CWEMF) for technical outreach to improve California’s analytical capabilities in support of water management decisions and investments. Improving these analytical capabilities will require significant participation by local, state and federal agencies, organizations and governments.
CWEMF, a non-profit, non-partisan organization that promotes excellence and consensus in water and environmental modeling, provides a venue in which DWR can engage stakeholders to improve analytical tools and share data. For more information about CWEMF, visit their website at www.cwemf.org.
For more information about Scenarios or Analytical Tools, please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org.